Future jobs
Best careers for the future in the UK: what the 2035 projections show
Long-term projections published by the Department for Education (revised in 2024) expect UK employment to rise by about 2.6 million between 2020 and 2035. The biggest growth is in professional and managerial work, care, and customer service. Administrative, secretarial and sales jobs are projected to shrink, though every group will still need new people to replace those who leave.
Updated
Where employment is projected to grow
The projections come from The Skills Imperative 2035, a research programme led by NFER and funded by the Nuffield Foundation, and are published by the Department for Education. They cover 26 broad occupation groups. These are the eight with the largest projected growth in jobs between 2020 and 2035, with what those jobs pay today.
| Occupation group | Projected change, 2020 to 2035 | Needed to replace leavers | Group median pay, 2025 | Example jobs and median pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business, media and public service professionalsSOC 2020 group 24: 2.6 million in 2020, 3.2 million projected for 2035 | +670,000 (+26%) | 1,419,000 | £49,513 | Solicitor: £56,977Accountant: £50,062Social worker: £44,550 |
| Other managers and proprietorsSOC 2020 group 12: 1.1 million in 2020, 1.6 million projected for 2035 | +494,000 (+43%) | 824,000 | £40,799 | Logistics manager: £46,143Facilities manager: £43,365GP practice manager: £42,559 |
| Caring personal service occupationsSOC 2020 group 61: 2.4 million in 2020, 2.8 million projected for 2035 | +466,000 (+20%) | 1,474,000 | £26,859 | Care workers and home carers: £27,468Healthcare assistant: £29,084Teaching assistant: £21,239 |
| Science, research, engineering and technology professionalsSOC 2020 group 21: 2.2 million in 2020, 2.6 million projected for 2035 | +394,000 (+18%) | 894,000 | £52,297 | Software developer: £56,914Cyber security analyst: £54,647IT project manager: £58,373 |
| Health professionalsSOC 2020 group 22: 1.7 million in 2020, 2.0 million projected for 2035 | +310,000 (+19%) | 974,000 | £46,131 | Nurse: £42,300Paramedic: £53,818Occupational therapist: £44,040 |
| Customer service occupationsSOC 2020 group 72: 605,000 in 2020, 889,000 projected for 2035 | +285,000 (+47%) | 363,000 | £28,485 | Other customer service jobs: £27,848Call and contact centre staff: £27,035 |
| Teaching and other educational professionalsSOC 2020 group 23: 1.8 million in 2020, 2.1 million projected for 2035 | +268,000 (+15%) | 994,000 | £47,479 | Secondary school teacher: £47,632Further education lecturer: £42,218 |
| Protective service occupationsSOC 2020 group 33: 397,000 in 2020, 541,000 projected for 2035 | +144,000 (+36%) | 169,000 | Not published | Firefighter: £44,033Prison officer: £41,287Police officer: ONS did not publish a reliable figure |
Projections: DfE, Labour market and skills projections: 2020 to 2035 (revised), UK main tables, occupation table 2, published . Produced for The Skills Imperative 2035 (NFER, funded by the Nuffield Foundation) by the Warwick Institute for Employment Research and Cambridge Econometrics. First published March 2023; revised files published August 2024.
Source: ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2025 (provisional), Table 14.7a, published . Median gross annual pay for full-time employee jobs in the UK, tax year ending 5 April 2025, for the whole sub-major group and for the unit group of each example job.
Where employment is projected to shrink
These are the eight groups with the largest projected fall in jobs. Look at the replacement column before you rule any of them out.
| Occupation group | Projected change, 2020 to 2035 | Needed to replace leavers | Group median pay, 2025 | Example jobs and median pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Administrative occupationsSOC 2020 group 41: 3.1 million in 2020, 2.7 million projected for 2035 | −381,000 (−12%) | 1,390,000 | £30,787 | Civil Service executive officer: £33,000Local government officer: £30,886Bookkeeper: £31,560 |
| Sales occupationsSOC 2020 group 71: 2.2 million in 2020, 1.9 million projected for 2035 | −255,000 (−12%) | 926,000 | £26,121 | Sales and retail assistants: £25,056 |
| Secretarial and related occupationsSOC 2020 group 42: 676,000 in 2020, 570,000 projected for 2035 | −105,000 (−16%) | 349,000 | £28,388 | Personal assistants and other secretaries: £34,954Receptionists: £24,678 |
| Elementary trades and related occupationsSOC 2020 group 91: 465,000 in 2020, 368,000 projected for 2035 | −97,000 (−21%) | 153,000 | £28,259 | Elementary construction jobs: £28,591 |
| Skilled metal, electrical and electronic tradesSOC 2020 group 52: 1.1 million in 2020, 1.0 million projected for 2035 | −72,000 (−7%) | 410,000 | £39,942 | Electrician: £39,647Maintenance fitter: £40,760Welder: £35,344 |
| Elementary administration and service occupationsSOC 2020 group 92: 3.1 million in 2020, 3.1 million projected for 2035 | −48,000 (−2%) | 1,536,000 | £27,486 | Warehouse operatives: £27,832Cleaners and domestics: £24,130 |
| Science, engineering and technology associate professionalsSOC 2020 group 31: 694,000 in 2020, 660,000 projected for 2035 | −34,000 (−5%) | 262,000 | £35,945 | Engineering technician: £44,843CAD technician: £35,221 |
| Skilled construction and building tradesSOC 2020 group 53: 903,000 in 2020, 889,000 projected for 2035 | −14,000 (−2%) | 388,000 | £35,764 | Carpenter or joiner: £34,014Bricklayer: £33,030Plasterer: £34,016 |
Projections: DfE, Labour market and skills projections: 2020 to 2035 (revised), UK main tables, occupation table 2, published . Produced for The Skills Imperative 2035 (NFER, funded by the Nuffield Foundation) by the Warwick Institute for Employment Research and Cambridge Econometrics. First published March 2023; revised files published August 2024.
Source: ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2025 (provisional), Table 14.7a, published . Median gross annual pay for full-time employee jobs in the UK, tax year ending 5 April 2025, for the whole sub-major group and for the unit group of each example job.
Why a shrinking job can still be a good bet
Growth is only part of the picture. Across all jobs, the projections expect a net rise of about 2.6 million (7%) between 2020 and 2035, but about 17.5 million people needed to replace those who leave the workforce through retirement or for other reasons. Together that is about 20.1 million jobs to fill.
So a group that shrinks can still hire a lot of people. Administrative jobs are projected to fall by about 381,000, yet about 1.4 million people are projected to be needed to replace leavers. Skilled construction trades barely change in size, but about 388,000 new workers are projected to be needed.
Growth does not mean good pay either. In percentage terms, customer service jobs grow faster than any other group in these projections (up about 285,000, or 47%), but the ONS median for the group was £28,485 in 2025, against £39,039 for all full-time employees. When you compare careers, look at three things together: how many openings there are likely to be, what the job pays, and how long it takes to get in.
The skills behind the growth
The revised skills analysis for the programme, by Andy Dickerson and Gennaro Rossi at the University of Sheffield (NFER, March 2024), found that all of the projected rise in employment between 2020 and 2035 is in jobs at the two highest skill levels in the ONS classification. Employment at the two lower levels is projected to be almost unchanged.
It names six essential employment skills likely to be used most across the labour market in 2035:
- communication
- collaboration
- information literacy
- problem solving and decision making
- organising, planning and prioritising work
- creative thinking
For what employers say they cannot find today, see our guide to the skills UK employers want in 2026, based on the Employer Skills Survey.
Source: Dickerson and Rossi, An analysis of the demand for skills in the labour market in 2035: revised projections (Working paper 3b), published March 2024. The Skills Imperative 2035, NFER.
How much weight to put on these numbers
- They are projections, not certainties. The workbooks say they are not precise predictions but the most likely trajectory of change, and that precise margins of error cannot be given.
- They start from 2020. Figures up to 2020 are historical estimates; everything from 2021 is projected.
- They were revised in 2024. ONS found errors in how it had coded occupations in its 2021 Labour Force Survey data. NFER's note on the revisions says the effect on overall employment is fairly minimal, but the projected growth in the share of employment taken by science, research, engineering and technology professionals, and by health and social care associate professionals, is now substantially smaller than first reported. We use the revised figures.
- They are for broad groups, not job titles. The workbooks also give figures for individual occupations, but those apply the same growth rate to every job within a group, so we do not quote them as forecasts for single jobs.
- They allow for technology, but they are not an AI forecast. NFER says the method captures technological and organisational change in how goods and services are produced. It does not model the effect of AI on any one job.
More on the programme is on the NFER Skills Imperative 2035 page.
What about AI?
This guide sticks to the published employment projections. If you are worried about how AI could change a particular job, our sister site AICareerSwap looks at that job by job, for example for nurses, care assistants, software developers, electricians, accountants and data analysts.
Common questions
Which jobs will be most in demand in the UK by 2035?
The DfE-published projections expect the biggest growth between 2020 and 2035 in business, media and public service professionals (about 670,000 more jobs); other managers and proprietors (about 494,000 more jobs); caring personal service occupations (about 466,000 more jobs); and science, research, engineering and technology professionals (about 394,000 more jobs). Health and teaching professionals also grow. These are broad groups; the projections do not rank individual job titles.
Which jobs are expected to decline?
The largest projected falls between 2020 and 2035 are in administrative occupations (down about 381,000); sales occupations (down about 255,000); and secretarial and related occupations (down about 105,000). Even so, the same projections expect about 1.4 million people to be needed in administrative jobs over that period to replace those who retire or leave.
Are skilled trades a good choice for the future?
The projections do not show construction or electrical trades growing: skilled construction and building trades are projected to shrink slightly (by about 14,000 between 2020 and 2035) and skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades by about 72,000. But because people retire or leave, about 388,000 and 410,000 new workers are projected to be needed. ONS median full-time pay in 2025 was £39,647 for electricians and £34,014 for carpenters and joiners, and those figures leave out the self-employed.
How reliable are these projections?
The published workbooks say they are not precise predictions but the most likely path of change, and that precise margins of error cannot be given. They start from 2020 and were revised in 2024 after ONS corrected errors in how it had coded occupations in its 2021 Labour Force Survey data. Use them for the direction and rough size of change in broad groups, not for any single job.
What skills will matter most by 2035?
The Skills Imperative 2035 researchers at the University of Sheffield named six essential employment skills likely to be used most in 2035: communication; collaboration; information literacy; problem solving and decision making; organising, planning and prioritising work; and creative thinking. Their revised analysis (NFER, March 2024) says these conclusions were largely unchanged by the data corrections.
Pay figures on this page come from the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2025. ONS publishes the 2026 figures on 22 October 2026.